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RACES TO WATCH: The Next 50’s Emerging Leaders Are Positioned to Win Tough Races—and Expand the Map

For Immediate Release

Washington, D.C. — The Next 50 is heading into Election Day with a clear conviction: strong next-generation leaders can win difficult races, reach voters beyond the Democratic base, and change where the party competes.

We backed these candidates before their paths were assured—not because victory was inevitable, but because their records of service, community ties, and leadership made them worth investing in. We are proud to have supported great candidates long before they were on the national stage — both throughout their careers and amid contested primaries. 

That includes endorsing Cait Conley (NY-17) more than a year before her primary victory as the first national organization to endorse her; backing Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) during her competitive state senate races and encouraging her to run for Congress; supporting Emily Gregory (FL-HD-87) before her special-election upset; and backing David Crowley (WI-GOV) since his re-election campaign for Milwaukee County Executive. 

Our record already speaks for itself: TN50’s endorsed candidates have won every general election this cycle and 92% of our primary races. We have directly contributed $1 million to candidates across the country.

Tomorrow, we expect that investment to help determine legislative majorities, deliver wins in Republican-leaning districts, and strengthen Democratic support beyond the party’s traditional base. For reporters, the story is not just which seats change hands. It is what these campaigns demonstrate about the leaders who can build lasting Democratic power.

In State Legislatures, The Path to a Majority Runs Through Strong TN50 Candidates

In Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan, the path to a majority runs through candidates with established community credibility. Democrats need two additional Wisconsin Senate seats, and Robyn Vining’s race in District 5 is a pivotal opportunity. Vining already flipped a traditionally Republican Assembly district in 2018; even Republican Sen. Patrick Testin calls holding this Senate seat an “uphill battle”. In Michigan, where Democrats need a net gain of four House seats, Anna Aho Rink brings two decades of healthcare experience and fourth-generation Upper Peninsula roots to a recently lost district. Her race connects the fight for control to Democrats’ ability to rebuild strength in Marquette County and compete in surrounding rural communities. Jen Fox is a lifelong Hastings resident and small business owner whose victory in Minnesota’s State House District 41b could hand Democrats the majority. 

The same is true in New Hampshire, where Rebecca Harned, a working parent and public-safety professional who served across administrations, is challenging a Republican incumbent in a district Trump carried by 6.8 points. Her race is part of Democrats’ effort to gain the five Senate seats needed for a majority. And in Florida, Emily Gregory is defending a seat whose Republican incumbent won by 19 points in 2024. TN50 supported her before she flipped it in March by focusing on insurance, groceries, and everyday costs.

These are different electoral environments, but the investment case is the same: leaders who understand their communities can make difficult seats competitive, protect gains, and change the balance of legislative power.

In Congressional Races, Credible Next-Generation Leaders Can Expand the Battlefield

The congressional map is not fixed. Credible leaders who know their communities and can build winning coalitions give Democrats opportunities that recent partisan results alone would not predict. TN50 invests in those leaders before their paths are assured—not simply in districts that already look favorable.

Shomari Figures, Bale Dalton, and Zach Dembo demonstrate why that approach matters. Redistricting left Figures defending an Alabama seat in an area Trump carried by 14 points; Sabato’s Crystal Ball now rates it a toss-up. In Florida’s 7th, an October poll showed Dalton tied in a Trump +12 district. In Kentucky’s 6th, Cook Political Report moved Dembo’s race to Toss-up. These candidates have kept difficult seats competitive through records of service, local credibility, and serious campaigns.

The coalitions taking shape show how Democrats can reach further. Dalton’s supporters include Central Florida labor unions and former Republican Sen. Mel Martinez. Rebecca Bennett’s strength among women, independents, and moderates in September polling points to another competitive suburban coalition. Those subgroup findings are directional, and the commissioning outlet’s owners have contributed to Bennett.

These candidates give voters concrete reasons to look beyond a party label. Conley and Bennett bring military service to our nation; Dembo brings deep Kentucky roots and experience as a Navy veteran and federal prosecutor. Christina Hines, a Macomb County native and former special-victims prosecutor, has spent her career protecting people and holding criminals accountable. Brian Poindexter, an ironworker, union organizer, and local council member, brings firsthand working-class experience to a Trump +11 Ohio district that nonpartisan race raters rate a toss-up. In Iowa, Sarah Trone Garriott’s service as a Lutheran minister, hospital chaplain, and state senator—and her three close legislative victories—provide a foundation for another competitive congressional campaign.

Bottom Line: We expect this leadership to translate into wins and stronger Democratic performance beyond the party’s traditional base, including in working-class and rural communities. That is the larger case behind TN50’s investments: credible next-generation leaders can earn trust, assemble broad coalitions, and show that Democrats can win anywhere.